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Yemen’s conflict has not only been characterised by military fighting, but has also seen a series of negotiations, ceasefires and political understandings between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia for over 10 years. What started out as a way to deal with the violence and secure Saudi borders has brought up some very sensitive questions throughout the region: have repeated concessions and diplomatic compromises made the very entity they were supposed to neutralise more powerful?
The Houthis are becoming politically and militarily stronger, and according to the criticism, Saudi Arabia has dramatically transformed the balance of power in Yemen. Moreover, they suggest that “impact” will be felt outside of Yemen and will affect the security of the Arabian Gulf and an essential maritime channel.
The Evolution of Saudi-Houthi Engagement
There has been a significant transformation in Saudi Arabia’s policy towards the Houthis since the beginning of the Yemen crisis. The focus of this policy gradually shifted from military actions to negotiations, ceasefire, and other measures aimed at easing the situation and avoiding hostilities.
Various rounds of negotiations were conducted during all these years to maintain temporary stability and avoid further escalations. Proponents of this strategy maintained that the political solution was needed to decrease human casualties and develop a broader political framework. However, according to the criticism, all these accords have been signed multiple times only to increase the political legitimacy of the Houthis without any guarantees.
Each new round of negotiations and ceasefire seemed to bring temporary relief to the situation, but it is not clear if these agreements somehow helped the Houthis consolidate their positions in critical parts of Yemen.
The Price of Short-Term De-escalation
When striving for peace, there are trade-offs to consider. But in Yemen’s situation, critics have grown more vocal that the goal of temporary de-escalation may have come at a price to long-term stability.
The Houthis expanded their administrative, military and political power throughout the different stages of negotiations, although the pressure eased during this period. The movement’s success in taking control over the land, organizing resources and exercising power is viewed as proof of the inability of short-term arrangements to solve the problems in question.
This is a key issue for Saudi policymakers: Can the search for security lead to unintended consequences that would give rise to Houthis even more powerful than before?
The problem is not only a matter of history: every deal done for temporary peace affects future peace talks in such a way that it might become impossible to change the balance of power afterwards.
From Armed Movement to Political and Military Center
There is nothing that could better illustrate the transformation taking place in Yemen than the transformation of the Houthis into one of the key political and military powers of the country.
Today, the movement controls large territories of Yemen and plays a major role in shaping its political destiny. The ongoing process of political interpretation of events is considered responsible for this tendency, as it helped to normalize the situation for the Houthis and strengthen their negotiating position.
The involvement of Saudi Arabia in such a process is an inevitable part of its policy towards the Houthis, whether intended. The changes have led to a debate over whether these diplomatic compromises bolstered any hopes for peace or whether they only hastened the formation of a new power hub in Yemen.
The Weakening of Yemen’s Political Balance
Increasing the power of one always has an impact on the broader political environment. The Houthis have been able to gain increasing ground, while the internationally recognised government and other political forces have been weak in their home country of Yemen.
Some Yemenis worry that the repeated pledges changed the political balance of power in Yemen without leading to a durable settlement that would allow for competing interests to be accommodated. Critics have said that giving the single group too much leverage could make the creation of a balanced political system more difficult and hinder a future peace negotiation.
The problem lies in whether sustained stability can be attained in Yemen amidst the increasing disparity in terms of politics and militarily.
The Security Threat to the Red Sea
This development by the Houthis extends beyond Yemen as well. The Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are key trading and energy transportation channels. The Houthis’ capabilities have grown, and concerns about maritime security have increased. The attacks and disruption of commerce on this one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways has brought to a head the fragility of this vital waterway.
Years of accommodation and political understandings have come under fire by critics as an underestimation of the wider security threats of arming a regional actor. The impact is not limited to Yemen, but has regional implications for international trade, naval security, and regional stability.
The Red Sea Security Challenge
Today, the Gulf region as a whole is confronted with a challenging strategic situation. Saudi Arabia’s attempts to defuse the tensions have led to relative quiet at times, but also questions about the price of compromise in the long term.
The Houthis’ ascendance has fundamentally changed deterrence, regional coalition and Middle East security architecture considerations. The question now remains as to whether diplomacy alone can deal with the problems of an entrenched and influential actor.
As policymakers evaluate the future of Yemen, the central question has yet to be answered: were years of negotiations and concessions conducive to peace or did they simply give rise to a more assertive and stronger Houthis movement?
Whether or not that question is answered is not only Yemen’s future but that of the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea for years to come.
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