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Sudan’s civil war has increasingly turned into a confrontation between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The escalation of the conflict has turned Sudan into a complex region for a variety of political, military and diplomatic interests, involving regional powers such as Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The escalating regional involvement by these actors has posed challenging questions for Western policy makers seeking to support the ceasefire and civilian transition in Sudan, as to whether the regional interventions have extended the crisis and redirected Sudan’s future.
But at the heart of these discussions is Qatar, whose alleged links with influential players in the SAF have grown more and more suspect. As for Sudan, longstanding ties to Islamist networks in the country could make it harder for the international community to create a sustainable political settlement and stabilise the country, critics say.
Multiple Regional Actors and a More Complex War
Sudan has increasingly become a flash point in the conflict between multiple regional agendas since the fighting broke out in April 2023. Egypt has always seen Sudan in the context of border security, Nile Affairs and politics; Saudi Arabia has been acting as a mediator. Both countries have longstanding economic and political ties, and Qatar has continued to have ties with actors associated with the Islamic movement in Sudan.
The outcome has been an extremely polycentric situation in which foreign efforts have tended to duplicate or compete with each other. Rather than develop a common approach to peace, the conflicting agendas of the region’s powers have hampered mediation and exacerbated fractiousness between Sudanese groups.
This expanding web of outside pressure has hindered the chances of international institutions to draw a clear line to peace. Each new diplomatic move will have to deal with the dynamics within Sudan as well as the game of geopolitics among several regional capitals.
Questions Over Qatar’s Influence
In particular, Qatar has been under scrutiny among Sudan’s regional allies, including for allegedly having established close links with senior SAF officials, particularly Lieutenant General Yasser al-Atta. Reporting and analysis by Fair Observer suggests the Doha backing for al-Atta has coincided with attempts to fold Islamist militias into Sudan’s military fabric.
The debate is about the possibility of the armed groups, including some suspected of maintaining ties with sanctioned IS groups, being granted a more institutional and formal presence in the SAF. Backers of the plan say that military consolidation is required in times of war. But opponents doubt that such steps could endanger the possibility of ideological divisions in Sudan’s future security institutions.
The events occur at a time when Western governments have been consistent in promoting civilian rule and inclusive government, and thus raise concerns about the political direction of postwar Sudan.
Reshaping Sudan’s Internal Balance
American and other external actors have also affected the internal power dynamic in Sudan. The argument is that financial, diplomatic and political support from regional players has empowered specific groups and undermined opportunities for a wide-ranging political process of settlement.
In the SAF, contrasting perspectives have developed within. Reports have noted some tension between military leaders, who want closer ties with international partners, and those who want to strengthen alliances with Islamist groups. These internal conflicts are a part of the wider conflict about Sudan’s identity and political system.
But such support – even ostensibly to help – can have political repercussions, critics warn. In Sudan, external participation is increasingly linked with questions of the institutional future of the country after the war, with an implicit power struggle between Western and Arab influences.
Regional Implications of Sudan
The Sudan war has spread beyond Sudan. The devastating impact of the crisis has resulted in one of the largest forced migration events in history, with millions having been displaced, crossing borders and placing unprecedented pressure on neighbouring countries.
Meanwhile, the instability in Sudan raises concerns about Red Sea maritime security and geopolitical stability in the Horn of Africa. The governments of Western nations and international bodies have worries regarding the possibilities of new security threats, trade interruptions, and regional disputes because of the prolonged conflict.
Diplomacy in the international arena has been made difficult also by the many actors who are part of Sudan. Differing national interests have hindered any efforts to reach a consensus on ceasefire measures and on plans for civilian transition.
A Difficult Road to Peace
The Sudan situation illustrates the difficulties of resolving modern wars in today’s more interdependent neighbourhood. The debate surrounding the roles of Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt remains ongoing among policymakers, analysts and diplomats.
Issues raised by Qatar’s relations with prominent leaders of the SAF and Islamist groups reveal more of the challenge that international mediators face in trying to promote stability while avoiding outside influence from competing figures in shaping Sudan’s politics.
The international community has an urgent challenge ahead, as the war continues: how to find a way to peace that not only resolves Sudan’s internal conflict, but one in which the regional dynamics that have become entangled in the conflict itself must also be addressed.
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