Does Normal Hiring Level Reflect a State Economy?

It’s the start of all seasons in the United States in September, school, football and pay raises and hiring. This idea has also garnered millions of views on TikTok with people discussing hiring increases. But experts predict some cooling. An end to the hiring spree, and down to what’s it called “normal” hiring level. 

The pandemic layoffs that ensued in 2020 – 2022 vacant positions have now nearly been filled. Data shows the labor market has cooled. Hiring was up in August 2023, employers added 187,000 jobs amid high interest rates and inflation. But the question arising is whether this normal level reflects the state economy. Scott Bailey, a regional economist, says the state economy is still working toward a soft landing, and navigating a mild recession. 

Hiring and Economy

Liora Alavrez, who runs an equitable recruiting firm Colorful Futures, says job openings have dropped but is most likely to pick up again. She said regardless of the economy, this is the time that companies focus on hiring. “You’re having jobs within a day or two and receive hundreds of applications so it’s definitely more difficult now than it has been in the past.” 

The executive pointed out that the September Surge is not a magical road to employment. But it’s a good time to put in an extra effort applying for roles. Alavrez believes job seekers should not settle for roles they don’t want. She advises job seekers to leverage the larger scope of opportunity. “Make sure that you are really focusing on the things that you really want and the values that align with you.” 

Hart Hodges, co-director at Western Washington University’s Center for Economic and Business Research, said some states will see harder landings than others in the next couple of months. He explained that recessions are never uniform. 

Hiring is Lower

Research shows that unemployment remains at a historic low, but there have been 133,000 more jobs that there were in August 2019. This is an increase but less than 4 percent over the four years. A career executive said the hiring surge may be lower but is still there.   Other experts say companies are in survival mode, and have not seen a growth period for quite some time. 

Before the COVID-19 hit, people and businesses had a growth mindset and were optimistic for the future. When the pandemic set in, everything dropped. And two years later, people, businesses and economies are trying to pick up from where they left off.