World Employment Outlook 2025: 7 Million Jobs Lost to Slowing Growth and Trade Tensions

Last updated on May 30th, 2025 at 10:49 am

The International Labour Organization (ILO) has drastically reduced the global employment estimate for 2025 again, from previously estimating 60 million new jobs to 53 million this time, a reduction of 7 million jobs. The estimate has been reduced due to heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing disruptions in international trade which are affecting the global economic picture. With this revision, the expected employment growth falls from 1.7% in the former estimate down to 1.5%, while global GDP growth is now down from 3.2% to 2.8%.

The ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Update is based on potentially precarious estimates from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook for April 2025. The report alone points out that an estimated 84 million jobs in 71 countries are associated with U.S. consumer demand. As indicated in the figures, many of these jobs, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, are becoming precarious due to rising friction in trade. In particular, Canada and Mexico bear a heavier burden, with 17.1% exposed to consumer demand shocks.

Broader labour market challenges remain. The share of global income accrual to workers declined from 53.0% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024, representing a cumulative loss of $1 trillion in labour income, which works out to be about $290 per worker. Inequality is compounded by the upward thrust of higher-skilled employment among women, but there are still issues with occupational segregation and educational mismatch.

Almost one-fourth of the workforce may have their jobs transformed by generative AI, with the greatest risk of automation in highly skilled jobs.

ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo emphasised the urgency of strengthening social protection, investing in skills, and fostering inclusive labour markets. “We can make a difference”, he said, “but only with urgency, ambition, and solidarity.”

The results bring a sobering reality that the global job market is shifting through economic, technological and social influences and action is now needed.