Labor Force Participation Rate Holds Steady Amid Aging Workforce and Childcare Challenges

Based on the most recent jobs data published on Friday, the labor force participation rate—that is, the percentage of the working-age population either employed or actively seeking employment—remained constant at 62.7% last month. Except for the pandemic-induced economic upheavals, this rate has been steady for several months and has stayed about 63% for several years. The consistency of the participation rate reflects a mix of demographic and economic elements, most importantly the aging of the baby boomer generation.

Aging Boomers Affecting Labor Force Participation

The growing number of baby boomers approaching retirement age is one of the main determinants of the present labor force participation rate. Economist Aaron Sojourner of the Upjohn Institute noted that the loss of this sizable workforce is progressively lowering the general participation rate as these people leave the labor force. 

Emphasizing the inevitable change in worker demographics, Sojourner said, “We have a big group of people who have been working, have been working, have been working, and are now hitting the age where they are retiring.” Younger workers replace more baby boomers as they retire, but the sheer volume of this group means their departure will always affect participation rates for the next foreseeable future.

The employment market is strong even if many older workers are leaving, especially for those between the ages of 25 and 54—often known as the “prime” workforce age. One of the highest rates in decades, this group—which reflects the center of the labor market—saw about 84% participation in September.

Sojourner pointed out, stressing the strength of the labor market for these workers, “you have to go back 23 years to find prime-age labor force participation rates that high.” The strong participation percentage among this age group implies that, for people in their prime working years, the labor market still appeals even if retiring baby boomers present certain difficulties.

Childcare: Essential Component Affecting Workforce Stability

Still, for many prime-age workers—especially parents—remaining in the economy mostly hinges on access to reasonably priced daycare. Vice president for research at the National Women’s Law Center, Jasmine Tucker cautioned that additional challenges for working parents could arise from recent changes in federal funding for childcare.

A last wave of federal pandemic funding for daycare expired in the last month, hence many childcare providers would have to close. The provision of reasonably priced child care could drop with the loss of government aid, therefore posing a major obstacle for those dependent on these services to remain working.

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“If supply goes down but demand is only going up, right, there’s obviously a mismatch there,” Tucker said, stressing the increasing burden on parents. The possible decline in daycare choices could cause some parents, especially mothers, to quit their jobs to take care of their children, therefore complicating the labor force participation rate.

Potential Labor Market Consequences

The expiration of childcare subsidies is probably going to make already difficult situations for working families worse, especially as demand for daycare services keeps growing. Parents who cannot locate or pay for childcare could feel driven to resign from their employment, therefore reducing the labor force participation even more. This could lower the availability of qualified workers in important sectors of the economy, so stressing companies already dealing with a limited workforce.

The U.S. labor market is being shaped by the interaction between an aging population and the difficulties obtaining reasonably priced daycare. Although prime-age workers are engaging at record-high rates, the retirement of older workers and the challenges experienced by working parents could balance each other.

Looking forward: Will labor force participation bounce back?

A major gauge of the state of the U.S. economy, the labor force participation rate is under constant observation by economists and legislators. Though the long-term trend of baby boomer generation aging is unlikely to be reversed, the circumstances for prime-age workers is still more uncertain. For now, a robust employment market has encouraged involvement; yet, future rates of participation may be affected by things like daycare availability and economic changes.

Particularly in sectors that depend on a consistent supply of labor, the possible departure of parents from the workforce resulting from the daycare issue could be a major negative impact on the labor market. It is unclear as the situation develops whether labor force participation will revert to pre-pandemic levels or keep under downward pressure from these conflicting forces.