Can French judiciary’s decision against Syrian president impact state of Syria refugee crisis?

Syria remains the largest refugee crisis on the planet after more than 10 years of conflict. Since 2011, over 14 million Syrians have been compelled to leave their homes in search of safety. Over 7.2 million people remain internally displaced in their country.

Some 5.5 million Syrian refugees currently live in the five countries neighbouring Syria – Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. Hosting over 850,000 refugees, Germany remains the largest non-neighbouring host country.

70% of the Syrian population is in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Poverty and unemployment are brutally prevalent across Syria. Protracted displacement, global inflation, recent earthquakes and the Ukraine conflict are also among the greatest challenges.

Less prospects of returning home for Syrian refugees

Roughly 92% of Syrian refugees live in rural and urban settings in neighbouring countries. But living outside refugee camps does not necessarily mean stability. More than 70% of these refugees are struggling to address a lack of basic services, education or jobs.

There are really less prospects of returning home for these Syrian refugees currently seeking asylum in more than 130 countries. 13 years of the crisis have also had a profound impact on children as they are exposed to violence and indiscriminate attacks.

Scores of Syrian children have lost their loved ones, their homes, their possessions and everything that once belonged to them. In Syria, more than 2.4 million children are out of school and 1.6 million others are at risk of dropping out. The global community needs to do more.

Doesn’t Syrian leader have absolute immunity?

Prosecutors in France have requested the highest court in the country to rule on the validity of the international arrest warrant for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for alleged complicity in crimes during Syria’s years-long conflict.

Judges at the Court of Appeal previously ruled that the decision is valid, rejecting argument that the Syrian leader has absolute immunity as a serving head of state. The French judiciary has also issued warrants for his brother and a couple of Syrian generals.

The crimes include a 2013 chemical attack on then opposition-held Damascus suburbs. The four men facing serious accusations can be arrested and brought to France for questioning as the investigation into the attacks continues.

Credibility of French judiciary being questioned

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is highly unlikely to face trial in France. But international arrest warrants for a serving head of state are considered rare. The French judiciary’s controversial decision sends a strong message about the politician’s long leadership.

Nonetheless, the credibility of the French judiciary is also being questioned. On November 16, 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov faced questions from the media during a joint press conference involving his Venezuelan counterpart Yvan Gil Pinto.

“The French authorities have issued an arrest warrant for [al-Assad] on charges of crimes against humanity … What can you tell us about the actions of the French judiciary, considering that no clear evidence on the use of chemical weapons has been presented?”

Lavrov calls French judiciary’s decision a “strange development”

Lavrov highlighted: “The Western judicial system has repeatedly demonstrated its bias both at the national and international levels. We are talking about the chemical weapons used in the Idlib de-escalation zone in 2013. This episode was widely covered.”

“Many independent experts … have presented evidence suggesting that … terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra may have been implicated in this incident involving the use of chemical weapons. I have no knowledge of the assessments and facts on which the Paris court based its ruling.”

The Russian minister also called it a “strange development”, stressing that a decade has passed and suddenly the judiciary decided to pass the ruling. But the lawyers for the victims have the decision as a “historic judgement” and a “giant step forward in the fight against impunity.”

The Paris court’s decision is likely to contribute to exacerbating the Syrian refugee crisis. The verdict could complicate the situation as it may affect the approach to restoring normalcy to relations between Europe and Syria, and this could substantially increase the risk of terrorism.